By JAMES FINK
jfink@bizjournals.com | 716-541-1611

A year ago, representatives of Visit Buffalo Niagara predicted the number of hotels booked in Buffalo and Erie County in December 2010 would not be repeated in December 2011.

It turns out they were right - and wrong.

According to data compiled by Smith Travel Research of Nashville, hotel occupancy rates in Buffalo and Erie County fell in December by 2.9 percent from the previous year, dropping to 51.5 percent.

The reason?

Last year, Buffalo hosted the World Juniors hockey championship series of nearly two weeks. The event attracted more than 331,000 fans and visitors, many of whom stayed overnight.

"We knew there would be a drop this year and there was," said Dottie Gallagher-Cohen, president and CEO of Visit Buffalo Niagara.

There was one surprise,  however: Despite the anticipated decrease, hotels in Buffalo and Erie County  reported a strong month overall. The area's hotel room occupancy rate of 51.5 percent was still above the U.S. average of 47.6 percent. It also was higher than the rate reported by Niagara Falls, which saw its hotels operating at 42.6 percent occupancy. In Rochester, the rate was 39.6 percent.

The U.S. average in December rose 4.1 percent from 45.8 percent, while Niagara Falls saw a 4.8 percent hike from 40.6 percent and Rochester reported a 7.9 percent increase to 36.7 percent.

Hotel room occupancy rates are considered a key economic factor in the hospitality industry.

For all of 2011, Buffalo and Erie County not only saw an increase in hotel occupancy, the area remains well above the national average.

For the year, it reported a 66.1 percent hotel room occupancy rate. That was a 2.4 percent increase over 2010's total.

Like the December occupancy numbers, Buffalo and Erie County easily topped the national average, which was 60.1 percent for 2010 and a 4.4 percent increase from 2009 when a rate of 57.5 percent was reported.

Gallagher-Cohen attributed Buffalo's increase to a number of factors. They include increased bookings and large-scale events such as the National Trust for Historic Preservation's annual conference, which was held locally during October. More than 2,500 people attended the event.

"A lot of good things happened last year," Gallagher-Cohen said. "All of our trends are trending upward in a very positive way."

She added that the current year and beyond are also looking good.

Last year, her organization secured $125 million in future bookings of conventions, meetings and sporting events.

Niagara Falls also had a strong year, thanks to aggressive bookings handled by the Niagara Tourism & Convention Corp.

That region saw its hotel occupancy rate increase 1.9 percent, rising from 58.3 percent to 59.4 percent.

Rochester reported a slight increase in its hotel occupancy rate, from 55.4 percent to 55.7 percent.