Denver is under more financial stress than any other professional-sports market in North America, according to a new On Numbers study.

Denver heads a list of 20 overextended markets, all of which have insufficient income bases for their existing major-league teams.

Buffalo is 11th on that list, which means that the area's total personal income (TPI) is not large enough to comfortably support the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabres.

On Numbers analyzed 85 metropolitan areas in the United States and Canada to determine if they have the financial ability to support professional teams in baseball, football, basketball, hockey and soccer.

The Denver area would need TPI of $209.3 billion to provide an adequate base for its five existing teams, according to the study. (TPI is the sum of all money earned by all residents in a given year.) But Denver's actual TPI is $121.9 billion, yielding an income deficit of $87.4 billion.

This shortfall doesn't necessarily mean that any of Denver's teams will move or fold. But it's a reliable sign that those teams can expect continued volatility in attendance and revenues.

Buffalo's TPI deficit is $30.9 billion, based on 2010 federal data.

Right behind Denver are five areas with TPI deficits larger than $50 billion: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Kansas City and Milwaukee.

Complete rankings (as well as specific breakdowns for the four sports listed below) can be accessed at http://tinyurl.com/on-numbers.

Baseball has few options for expansion

If Major League Baseball ever decides to expand, it will have very few options.

Only one market - Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. - has an income base that's large enough to support a new MLB team, as estimated by On Numbers.

Seven other markets, including Montreal and Las Vegas, have borderline potential, based on an analysis of total personal income.

An MLB team requires an income base of $85.4 billion for adequate support, says On Numbers.

Financial capacity was the focus of On Numbers' studies of all sports, but other considerations would obviously be important.

Los Angeles is the clear choice for the NFL

The Los Angeles area has a plethora of major-league sports teams - two each in baseball, basketball, hockey and soccer.

But it doesn't belong to the National Football League, though its population (12.8 million) and total personal income ($565.4 billion) are the second-largest in America.

On Numbers says those figures make Los Angeles the most attractive location for a new NFL franchise. L.A. tops a list of 24 metros whose income bases are theoretically large enough to support a pro-football team.

The study determined that an NFL team requires an income base of $36.7 billion. The Los Angeles area has $220.3 billion in available personal income after meeting the needs of its other pro-sports franchises. That's enough to support not just one NFL team, but six of them.

Canada is way down the NHL list

The National Hockey League has already shifted one franchise this summer — transforming the Atlanta Thrashers into the Winnipeg Jets.

Skeptics contend that other relocations may soon be necessary, perhaps involving such struggling franchises as Phoenix, Columbus or the New York Islanders.

If such a scenario comes to pass, 22 markets have the necessary income bases to support an NHL team, says On Numbers. Among the prominent candidates are Houston, Las Vegas, Orlando and Seattle.

The study estimated that an NHL team needs an income base of $37.6 billion. Houston, for instance, has TPI of $281.8 billion. If the bases for its baseball, football, basketball and soccer franchises are subtracted, there's $110.2 billion left, well above the threshold for hockey.

Other factors would be considered, of course, such as an area's passion for hockey. Canada has that quality in abundance, yet none of its markets posted marks better than the borderline financial score shared by Hamilton, Ont., and Quebec City.

G. Scott Thomas is projects editor at Business First. (sthomas@bizjournals.com)