It would be easy to dismiss efforts of the Buffalo Niagara Partnership and Mayor Byron Brown to get a handle on the downtown commercial real estate picture as some form of political lip service or a knee-jerk reaction to recent events.

Don't do it.

With the uncertain future of the Statler Towers serving as a commercial real estate headache, and what may happen to the 38-story HSBC Tower not far behind, the timing couldn't be better.

It goes beyond that, however.

It's about what's ahead for the downtown office market.

"We need a blueprint for downtown," Brown said. "I'm looking around and seeing what may be a lot of new vacancies. You have to look at these issues in the context of what it means to downtown."

While Class A space still remains a premium, older buildings with Class B and Class C space are suffering. What the Partnership will find as it gets deeper into the downtown survey is that the number of buildings and landlords who are in a fragile state clearly outnumber those with healthy occupancy numbers. There are few signs of life that would make anyone feel confident, outside of those with Pollyanna-like blinders on.

"It's the Statler. It's the potential outflow from the (HSBC) tower," said Andrew Rudnick, Buffalo Niagara Partnership president and CEO. "Let's be perfectly honest and frank. In our downtown market, there is little net, new demand for office space. Most of the movement is just companies moving from one building to another."

Because of the implications of its report - Brown said he intends to use it as a development textbook for City Hall - the Partnership doesn't plan to rush through it.

Further, it will detail the good, the bad and the ugly when it comes to downtown commercial real estate.

Rudnick said the data that's compiled will be sent to a number of city agencies for review and input. That includes the Buffalo Zoning Board of Appeals and the Buffalo Planning Board.

The report also comes at a time when incentives for certain downtown projects are being questioned.

For instance, if HSBC Bank USA NA receives the handsome incentive package that many assume will happen to leave HSBC Towers for another downtown spot, expect a lot of critics to cry foul.

That was certainly the case during December's Buffalo Place Inc. meeting of the board of directors.

Buffalo Place Inc. has gone on record recommending that HSBC Bank remain the anchor tenant in the 38-story HSBC Tower. If it moves, the building will thrust more than 653,000 square feet on an already fragile market.

Hoyt chimes in

Just before Thanksgiving, Jordan Levy of Erie Canal Harbor Development Corp. met with commissioners of the Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority to discuss myriad subjects - all related to waterfront development issues.

At the time, Levy reopened the door about his agency somehow acquiring the NFTA's 120 acres of Outer Harbor land sandwiched between the rebuilt Fuhrmann Boulevard and Lake Erie. The NFTA commissioners agreed it is a discussion that should continue, and continue on a fast track.

Levy again brought up the Outer Harbor during a Nov. 29 meeting with his fellow ECHDC directors.

Now, state Assemblyman Sam Hoyt, D-Buffalo, has entered the fray. He wrote to NFTA interim Chairman Henry Sloma and offered his help to hasten the transaction.

"While the NFTA has done an admirable job in reclaiming the property, it is time to turn it over to the entity, namely the ECHDC, which has the capacity to realize its commercial potential," he wrote to Sloma.

"As the agency primarily responsible for developing and maintaining public transportation services and infrastructure, it does not make sense that the NFTA own property slated for economic development. While it may have made sense for the NFTA to own these 120 acres in the past, current circumstances warrant a transfer of ownership to the ECHDC be initiated in the immediate future."