By G. SCOTT THOMAS
sthomas@bizjournals.com | 716-541-1618

Buffalo's report card is in, and the results are mixed. Definitely not Honor Roll material, but not bottom-of-the-class stuff, either.

Business First has compiled the latest demographic and economic data for 21 metropolitan areas - the Buffalo area (consisting of Erie and Niagara counties), the 10 metros immediately above it in the national population rankings and the 10 immediately below.

Buffalo's performances in 10 key economic and demographic categories have been matched up against the other markets and graded accordingly. Grades were based on the local rank within the study group, as well as a comparison of local and national averages.

The bottom line: two B's, five C's, two D's and a single F.

The study group runs in size from 1.33 million residents (Jacksonville) to 848,000 (New Haven, Conn.), with Buffalo's 1.12 million comfortably in the middle. Here's how they stack up:

Population growth

Local numbers: Growth is the wrong heading for this category, at least as far as the Buffalo area is concerned. The population of the two-county metro has declined by 45,000 since 2000, a drop of 3.9 percent.

Best: Raleigh is expanding at an astounding pace, adding 321,000 people in a decade. That's a 40 percent increase. Tucson (20.2 percent) and Jacksonville (17.9 percent) are also growing rapidly.

Worst: New Orleans was not doing well in this category even before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated it in 2005. Its population is 9.5 percent lower today than a decade ago.

Local grade: D-minus. Buffalo ranks 20th in the group of 21 metros. Only New Orleans is doing worse.

Per capita income

Local numbers: Per capita income (PCI) is the average amount of money received by a resident of a metro area in a given year. It encompasses such diverse sources of income as salaries, interest payments, dividends, rental income and government checks. The Buffalo area's PCI is $37,511.

Best: The Bridgeport, Conn., metro includes several affluent suburbs of New York City, as reflected by its stratospheric PCI of $73,720. The runners-up are also from Connecticut: Hartford ($49,667) and New Haven ($46,125).

Worst: Fresno brings up the rear with a PCI of $30,724, nearly 60 percent lower than Bridgeport's. Tucson comes next at $33,259.

Local grade: C-minus. Buffalo ranks 15th, but isn't terribly far behind the national PCI of $40,757.

Income growth

Local numbers: Per capita income in the Buffalo area was $27,074 in 2000. It has grown 38.5 percent since then.

Best: New Orleans is the surprise leader in this category, thanks to the 2005 hurricanes. Tens of thousands of poor people fled the city, never to return, thereby inflating the area's PCI. It has risen 47.9 percent in the past decade. Honolulu (46.8 percent) runs a close second.

Worst: Income growth has been virtually nonexistent in Raleigh, with an increase of just 8.9 percent since 2000.

Local grade: B. Buffalo's rate of income growth is a solid fifth among the 21 metros.

Long-term job growth

Local numbers: The arrow is heading the wrong way. The Buffalo area had 26,400 fewer private-sector jobs as of July 2010 than in the same month 10 years ago. That's a drop of 5.6 percent.

Best: Raleigh has done well on the employment front, despite its poor record of income growth. It has expanded its number of private-sector jobs by 10.5 percent since mid-2000. Honolulu (up 7.2 percent) is the runner-up.

Worst: Katrina and Rita blew away a sizable block of New Orleans' private-sector jobs, the prime reason for its 14.6 percent decline during the decade. Birmingham is next to last with a drop of 9.5 percent.

Local grade: D-plus. Buffalo is 15th in this category, with a rate of decline that is considerably worse than average.

Mid-term job growth

Local numbers: The Buffalo area's five-year record is also a negative one. It has lost 1.8 percent of its private-sector employment base (8,200 jobs) since mid-2005.

Best: Raleigh is once again the leader, boosting its total of private-sector jobs by 4.6 percent between 2005 and 2010. Nobody else has done better than Oklahoma City's 1.4 percent.

Worst: The five-year timespan matches the post-hurricane period in New Orleans, which has seen 13.2 percent of its private-sector jobs disappear.

Local grade: C-plus. Buffalo is a surprisingly strong eighth, and its rate of loss is less severe than the norm.

Short-term job growth

Local numbers: The short-term news on the job front is actually positive. The Buffalo area has added 400 private-sector positions in the past year, a slight uptick of 0.1 percent.

Best: Honolulu is rolling along, expanding its job base by 2.4 percent between 2009 and 2010. Oklahoma City is next with a rate of 2.0 percent.

Worst: More than two-thirds of the markets (15 of 21) have lost jobs since mid-2009, with the worst declines occurring in Birmingham (down 2.8 percent) and Memphis (down 2.7 percent).

Local grade: B. An increase is an increase, particularly in these tough times. Buffalo is a solid sixth in this category.

Manufacturing growth

Local numbers: There was a time when the manufacturing sector dominated the local economy. No longer. The Buffalo area has lost 34,900 manufacturing jobs since 2000, a precipitous drop of 42.3 percent.

Best: The word "best" is used loosely here. All 21 markets have suffered manufacturing declines. Honolulu's rate (down 11.8 percent) is the least severe.

Worst: Richmond has taken the biggest hit. Its manufacturing sector is 43.8 percent smaller now than it was 10 years ago.

Local grade: F. Buffalo's decline is the second-worst in this category.

Unemployment

Local numbers: The local unemployment rate in July was 8.0 percent. That's normally a scary figure, but it doesn't look so bad when so many areas are in double digits.

Best: Omaha has survived the recession in fine style, as witnessed by its jobless rate of 5.3 percent. Honolulu is the runner-up at 5.8 percent.

Worst: Unemployment statistics have gotten downright frightening in Fresno, where the rate is 16.2 percent. Also in double digits are Jacksonville (11.7 percent) and Memphis (10.1 percent).

Local grade: C-plus. Buffalo's rate is the ninth-lowest among 21 markets.

Education rate

Local numbers: The latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that 205,000 people in the Buffalo area - 26.9 percent of all adults over the age of 24 - hold bachelor's degrees.

Best: The Bridgeport area, where 43.8 percent of adults have four-year degrees, is the most highly educated region in the study group. Raleigh is second at 41.5 percent.

Worst: Fresno is far and away in last place with a bachelor's degree rate of 18.9 percent. All others are above 23 percent.

Local grade: C-minus. Buffalo ranks 13th in this category.

Poverty rate

Local numbers: The City of Buffalo has the third-worst poverty rate among major U.S. cities. The two-county metro, taken as a whole, is not as severely afflicted. An estimated 9.5 percent of local families live below the federal poverty line.

Best: It hardly comes as a shock that the market with the highest per capita income also has the lowest poverty rate. Bridgeport sets the pace at 5.7 percent, closely followed by Honolulu at 5.8 percent.

Worst: It's equally unsurprising that the place with the worst unemployment rate also has the worst poverty rate. Roughly one-sixth of the families in Fresno (17.3 percent) are officially classified as poor.

Local grade: C. Buffalo again ranks 13th, but is actually a shade below the national poverty rate of 9.7 percent.