By JAMES FINK
Business First

Despite New York's reputation as Democratic stronghold, the head of Sen. John McCain's Empire State presidential campaign team believes the Arizona Republican can win the state, including Upstate and Western New York.

Edward Cox, a partner in the New York law firm of Patterson Belknap Webb & Tyler and son-in-law of former President Richard Nixon, made that prediction during a meeting at the Business First/Buffalo Law Journal offices.

Cox was in Buffalo to take part in a fundraiser for Christoper Lee, who is running for the suburban Republican congressional seat currently held by Rep. Tom Reynolds, who is retiring, and to meet with McCain supporters as a prelude to the candidate's scheduled July 21 visit to the region.

Cox said when Sen. Barack Obama became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee in this year's presidential race, edging out U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, that changed the race's dynamics.

"New York is more in play now with Obama than it would have been with Mrs. Clinton," Cox said. "Obama is much more of a mystery (to Buffalo)."

Cox, who made several visits to Buffalo in the days leading up to this past winter's Super Tuesday presidential primary, said he deliberately stayed away until the Democratic primary battle between Clinton and Obama ended and the McCain camp knew who they would be facing in the general election.

No stranger to Republican Party politics, Cox briefly staged a run against Clinton in the 2006 Senate race but ultimately dropped out to make way for Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro.

One of the byproducts of his own campaign, Cox said, was learning that New Yorkers, despite their liberal bent, are "economic conservatives." Cox said his polls found that more than 70 percent of all New York state voters viewed themselves in that vein, which he says plays well for McCain.

"Sen. McCain comes across as this guy who understands the problems," Cox said. "He loves the ‘town hall' setting. Sen. McCain fits in well with Western New York, and he would fit in very well in Cheektowaga."

Recent polls show Obama leading McCain by slightly more than 6 percentage points.

Cox said Obama's endorsements from xentertainers such as Bruce Springsteen, Bob Dylan and members of the Grateful Dead may gather some headlines, but in the long run, voters will see through those endorsements.

"I'm willing to bet there is a strong silent majority that backs Sen. McCain," Cox said.

Driving the campaign will be two key issues - national security and the economy.

Cox feels national security still rises above the economy, despite rising gas and food prices.

"People may say it is the economy when they are asked by pollsters, but when they enter the election booths, they are going to ask, ‘What do we really want in a president?' " Cox said.

The economy's impact will be felt more with this year's local, state and congressional races than in the presidential contest, he believes.

"National security will still be the issue when people are pulling that lever," Cox said.